Scott Kennedy's Publications

CSIS Publications (CSIS 刊物)

Advancing U.S.-China Health Security Cooperation in an Era of Strategic Competition
December 2021 | By Yanzhong Huang and Scott Kennedy

Careful Connectivity: Responding to China’s AV Drive
October 15, 2021 | By Scott Kennedy
Chinese State Capitalism: Diagnosis and Prognosis
October 2021 | Edited by Scott Kennedy and Jude Blanchette
First Takes: Our Initial Reactions to USTR Tai’s CSIS Speech on China Policy
October 5, 2021 | By Scott Kennedy, Ilaria Mazzocco, Daniel H. Rosen, Claire Reade, Deborah Seligsohn, Jeannette Chu, and John L. Holden
Beijing Suffers Major Loss from Its Hostage Diplomacy
September 29, 2021 | By Scott Kennedy

China’s New National Carbon Trading Market: Between Promise and Pessimism
July 23, 2021 | By Jane Nakano, Scott Kennedy

Congress on China: Then and Now
June 22, 2021 | By Scott Kennedy

Surprises from China’s Latest Census
May 14, 2021 | By Scott Kennedy and Mingda Qiu

We Stand with MERICS
March 26, 2021 | By Scott Kennedy, Bonnie S. Glaser, Jude Blanchette, and Matthew P. Goodman

Cheap Talk: China’s Central Bank Still Struggles to Speak to Markets
February 8, 2021 | By Scott Kennedy and Yilin Wang
Protecting Democracy in an Age of Disinformation: Lessons from Taiwan
January 27, 2021 | By Jude Blanchette, Scott Livingston, Bonnie S. Glaser, and Scott Kennedy
A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China
January 19, 2021 | By Scott Kennedy
The US and China: Not Number One
December 21, 2020 | By Shining Tan, Michael Zhang, Qihan Zou, and Scott Kennedy

China’s Stalled Aircraft Dreams
December 7, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy
China’s COMAC: An Aerospace Minor Leaguer
December 7, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

The Coming NEV War? Implications of China’s Advances in Electric Vehicles
November 18, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy
China’s Planners Succeed, but What About China?
November 11, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

China’s Fifth Plenum: Reading the Initial Tea Leaves
October 30, 2020 | By Jude Blanchette, Scott Kennedy

Mapping the Future of U.S. China Policy: Views of U.S. Thought Leaders, The U.S. Public, and U.S. Allies and Partners
October 13, 2020 | By Michael J. Green, Jude Blanchette, Bonnie Glaser, and Scott Kennedy

Thunder Out of Congress on China
September 11, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

The Biggest But Not the Strongest: China’s Place in the Fortune Global 500
August 18, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy, Mario Colella

America’s Huawei Challenges
July 31, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy, Shining Tan

Decoupling Kabuki: Japan’s Effort to Reset, Not End Its Relationship with China
July 28, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy, Matthew P. Goodman

Washington’s China Policy Has Lost Its Wei
July 27, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

Decoupling Between Washington and Western Industry
June 10, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy, Shining Tan
Better Governance, Better Outcomes: East Asia Experiences Tackling COVID-19
June 2, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy, Shining Tan

Options on Hong Kong: A Suggested NSC Memo
June 2, 2020 | By Jude Blanchette, Victor Cha, Bonnie Glaser, Michael Green, Scott Kennedy

China’s Poor Purchasing Performance: How Should the United States Respond?
May 8, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

Chinese Philanthropists Rush to Respond to COVID-19
May 4, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

China Won’t Be Scared into Choosing Marketization
April 23, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

Why Is Federal Government Action Not Shoring Up Markets? Alternative Explanations
March 17, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy, William Alan Reinsch, Scott Miller, Stephanie Segal, Matthew P. Goodman, Daniel H. Rosen

Mystery Math: The U.S.-China Phase-1 Purchase Figures Do Not Add Up
March 10, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

China’s Uneven High-Tech Drive: Implications for the United States
February 27, 2020 | Edited by Scott Kennedy

The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak 

January 28, 2020 | By Stephen J. Morrison, Jude Blanchette, Scott Kennedy, Stephanie Segal

What's Inside the U.S.-China Phase One Deal?
January 15, 2020 | By Matthew P. Goodman, Scott Kennedy, William Alan Reinsch, Stephanie Segal, Jack Caporal

A Fragile and Costly U.S.-China Trade Peace
December 13, 2019 | By Scott Kennedy
Market Metrics: A Fact-Based Approach to the Chinese Economic Challenge
October 10, 2019 | By Scott Kennedy, Daniel H. Rosen

China's Military-Civil Fusion Funds: Big but Not Necessarily Effective
October 4, 2019 | By Audrey Fritz, Scott Kennedy

Show Me the Receipts: China’s Rising IP Payments to the United States
August 19, 2019 | By Wang Qiuyang, Qiu Mingda, Scott Kennedy

China’s Auto Market Slowdown Finally Hits New-Energy Vehicles
June 25, 2019 | By Scott Kennedy, Qiu Mingda

Whither Hong Kong?
June 14, 2019 | By Mingda Qiu, Scott Kennedy

The Challenges of the ‘Crazy Uncle’ Strategy
May 7, 2019 | By Scott Kennedy

Building a Better Deal with China
January 28, 2019 | By Daniel H. Rosen, Scott Kennedy
In the U.S.-China Dinner Episode, Trump Wins by a Hair
December 3, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy
China’s Risky Drive into New-Energy Vehicles
November 19, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy
China’s Expensive Gamble on New-Energy Vehicles
November 6, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy, Mingda Qiu

The Freeman Chair China Report, August 2018
August 18, 2018 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy
Investment Restrictions on China: The Decision that Wasn’t
June 28, 2018 | By James Andrew Lewis, William Alan Reinsch, Scott Kennedy, Stephanie Segal
The Diaoyutai Divide: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations Highlight Deep Differences
May 4, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy
The Freeman Chair China Report, April 2018
April 30, 2018 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy
Surviving March Madness in U.S.-China Trade Relations
March 27, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy

Chapter 1, “The Beijing Playbook: Chinese Industrial Policy and Its Implications for the United States,” Meeting the China Challenge
January 29, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy
The Freeman Chair China Report, Issue 21 December 2017
December 20, 2017 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy

Xi Jinping Opens 19th Party Congress Proclaiming a New Era—His
October 18, 2017 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy

Xi's Signature Governance Innovation: The Rise of Leading Small Groups 
October 17, 2017 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy, Mingda Qiu 

Freeman Chair Analysis of Xi Jinping During His First Term 
October 16, 2017 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy

The Fat Tech Dragon
August 29, 2017 | By Scott Kennedy
The Freeman Chair China Report, Issue 20 August 2017
August 18, 2017 | By Scott Kennedy, Christopher K. Johnson
The Stalemate in U.S.-China Economic Talks: Turning a Corner or Going Around in Circles?
August 3, 2017 | By Scott Kennedy
Joint U.S.-China Think Tank Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations
July 6, 2017  | Multiple Contributors
CSIS Press Briefing on President Xi’s Visit to the United States
April 3, 2017 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy, Bonnie S. Glaser
Donald Trump’s First Summit with President Xi Jinping of China
April 3, 2017 | By CSIS Asia Team
Tomb Sweeping Day: Deadline for a U.S. China Policy
March 14, 2017 | By Scott Kennedy

The WTO in Wonderland: China’s Awkward 15th Anniversary
December 11, 2016 | By Scott Kennedy
How the United States and China Can Avoid Greater Tensions
November 10, 2016 | By Scott Kennedy
Now China’s “Core” Leader, Xi Jinping Looks to Dominate Leadership Shuffle
October 28, 2016 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy

Thoughts from the Chairman: The Ambiguous Benefit of Meetings in China
October 14, 2016 | By Scott Kennedy, Christopher K. Johnson

The Hangzhou G20 Summit: The Ambiguous Gap Between Aspiration and Action
September 7, 2016 | By Scott Kennedy
Perfecting China, Inc.
May 23, 2016 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy
China's Mum Central Banker
March 15, 2016 | By Scott Kennedy
State and Market in Contemporary China: Toward the 13th Five-Year Plan 
March 2, 2016 | Editor, Scott Kennedy; contributors: Chen Ling, Nicholas Consonery, David Hathaway, Jesse Heatley, Jamie Horsley, Roselyn Hsueh, David Kelly, Arthur Kroeber, Dan Markus, Peter Martin, Oliver Melton, Margaret Pearson, Claire Reade, Daniel Rosen, D.D. Wu, Yan Chunlin
Not Your Average Zhou: China's Central Bank Governor Finally Speaks,
February 16, 2016 | By Scott Kennedy
The RMB joins the SDR: Historic Inch-stone in Global Financial System
November 30, 2015 | By Scott Kennedy
Economic Consequences of China's Slowdown
November 16, 2015 | By Scott Kennedy
China's Fifth Plenum Yields More Questions than Answers
November 2, 2015 | By Christopher K. Johnson, Scott Kennedy
Xi’s Seattle Stop Sets Up His D.C. Drop In
September 23, 2015 | By Scott Kennedy
Making Sense of the Market Turmoil
August 25, 2015 | By Scott Kennedy, Matthew P. Goodman
The RMB Announcement: A Stimulating Reform
August 11, 2015 | By Scott Kennedy
Crisis Averted in China’s Stock Market for Now
July 6, 2015 | By Scott Kennedy
Made in China 2025
June 1, 2015 | By: Scott Kennedy
Building China's "One Belt, One Road"
April 3, 2015 | By Scott Kennedy, David A. Parker
Thoughts from the Chairman: How to Pragmatically Respond to Greater Chinese Activism on the Global Stage, (PDF)
February 13, 2015
Bears in a China Shop: AmCham China's Latest Survey Shows Growing Worries
February 10, 2015 | By Scott Kennedy

Commentary (评论)

“Critical time to bridge Sino-US trust gap,” China Daily, December 16, 2021 | By Yanzhong Huang and Scott Kennedy

“Chinese Firms Don’t Want to Pay Afghanistan’s Costs,” Foreign Policy, August 27, 2021 | By Scott Kennedy

“Will I Return to China? A ChinaFile Conversation,” ChinaFile, June 21, 2021 (with Tracy Wen Liu, Edith Terry, James Mann, J. Michael Cole, Donald Clarke, Margaret Lewis, Kyle Hutzler, Thorsten Benner, Maura Cunningham, William Nee, and Rosie Levine).

“For China, offering Biden a plastic olive branch would be worse than doing nothing,” South China Morning Post, November 16, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

“US’ China policy must balance targeted curbs with multilateral cooperation in a ‘goldilocks approach,’” South China Morning Post, October 21, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

“What Now? A ChinaFile Conversation,” ChinaFile, August 5, 2020 (with Jerome A. Cohen, Rui Zhong, Robert Daly, Sophie Richardson, Yangyang Cheng, Tong Yi, Andrew J. Nathan, Pamela Kyle Crossley, Alex Wang).

“As Hong Kong is stripped of its autonomy and special status, how will the next chapter play out?” South China Morning Post, May 30, 2020 | By Scott Kennedy

“China: The Year Ahead, A ChinaFile Conversation,” ChinaFile, January 8, 2020 (with David Schlesinger, Sophie Richardson, Carl Minzner, Ali Wyne, and Scott W. Harold).

“U.S. Doesn’t Need to Break Up With China” Bloomberg Opinion, November 14, 2019 | By Scott Kennedy and Jude Blanchette

“Is China a strategic partner or rival power?” Washington Post, July 2, 2019 | By Scott Kennedy

“What Exactly Is The Story With China’s Rare Earths? A ChinaFile Conversation, ChinaFile, May 31, 2019 (with Paul Haenle).

“US and China: Things will get worse before they get worse,” The Hill, December 21, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy

“Why the arrest of Huawei’s CFO amid trade war tension should not push China to rely more on home-grown technology,” South China Morning Post, December 17, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy

“Protecting America's Technology Industry From China,” Foreign Affairs, August 2, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy

“Is the US Ready of a Trade War?” YaleGlobal, March 6, 2018 | By Scott Kennedy

"The US is preparing for a trade war with China--don't be fooled by the noise," South China Morning Post, November 21, 2017 | By Scott Kennedy

"Trump Goes to Asia, A ChinaFile Conversation," ChinaFile, November 2, 2017 (with Ely Ratner, David Dollar, Dhruva Jaishankar,  Pamela Kyle Crossley, Chen Weihua, Richard Bernstein, and Edward Friedman). 

"China's Economic Reforms Have Hit a Wall," Real Clear World, May 11, 2017 | By Scott Kennedy

"Does Tillerson's Asia Visit Signal a New Era in U.S.-China Relations? A ChinaFile Conversation,"  ChinaFile, March 24, 2017 (with Shen Dingli). 

"TPP is Dead, Now What? A ChinaFile Conversation," ChinaFile, January 27, 2017 (with  David Dollar, Charlene Barshefsky, Wendy Cutler, Edward Friedman, Chen Weihua, Ho-fung Hung, and George G. Chen). 

“Beijing's Inefficient Economics Policies,” Cipher Brief, November 25, 2016 | By Scott Kennedy
“What Can We Expect from China at the G20? A ChinaFile Conversation,” ChinaFile, September 1, 2016 (with Sophie Richardson, Taisu Zhang, Joanna Lewis, Li Shuo, John Delury, Philipp Ivanov, Ho-fung Hung, Lina Benabdallah, Yaqiu Wang, Chen Weihua, Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Carla Freeman, Gregory Chin, Tobias Harris, and Margaret Lewis).

“China Analysts Should Talk to Each Other, Not at Each Other,” ChinaFile, August 25, 2016.

It’s Time for China Analysts to Stop Talking Past One AnotherForeign Policy, August 24, 2016 | Scott Kennedy

“China’s 13th Five-Year Plan: Q&A with Scott Kennedy and Christopher K. Johnson” Wall Street Journal, May 23, 2016 | By Mark Magnier
Stop China's Market Manipulations,” New York Times, January 18, 2016.

“China in 2016, A ChinaFile Conversation,” ChinaFile, December 23, 2015 (with Andrew J. Nathan, Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, Taisu Zhang, and Jerome A. Cohen).

The Part of IMF's Yuan Announcement No One Saw Coming,” Bloomberg Brief, December 2, 2015.

Let China Join the Global Monetary Elite,” Foreign Policy Magazine, August 20, 2015.

China’s Un-Separation of Powers: The Blurred Lines of Party and Government,” Foreign Affairs, July 24, 2015 (with Christopher K. Johnson).

Op-Ed: China’s Stock Market Heresy,” LA Times, July 14, 2015.

Washington’s Big China Srew-Up,” Foreign Policy Magazine, March 26, 2015 (with Stephen S. Roach, Zha Daojiong, and Patrick Chovanec).

“What Went Wrong With U.S. Strategy on China’s New Bank and What Should Washington Do Now? A ChinaFile Conversation, ChinaFile, March 24, 2015 (with Patrick Chovanec, Zha Daojiong, Stephen S. Roach, Mikko Huotari, and Wu Jianmin).

“China's Shift Toward Real Reform,” Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2013, p. 13. ( PDF)

“China's Third Plenum Communique Moves from Nouns to Adjectives,” East Asia Forum, Australian National University (, November 18, 2013. (PDF)

“The New Xi Jinping-Li Keqiang Government: Is the Hype Deserved?” GaveKal Dragonomics China Seminars Shanghai, April 24, 2013; and Beijing, April 25, 2013. (PDF)

“From China to Chinese: Expanding Non-State Actors in Global Governance,” Bridges China Dialogue 2012, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, RCCPB, and Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Geneva, Swizterland, September 27, 2012. (PDF

“An Inalienable Scholar” (异化不了的学者) in Xiong Jingming and Xu Xiao, eds., Historian Gao Hua (史家高华), (Hong Kong: Hong Kong Chinese University Press, 2012), pp. 270-273. (PDF)

“Beijing Can’t Outgrow Corruption,” Wall Street Journal, May 10, 2012. (PDF)

Good Leap Forward,” Foreign Policy Magazine, March 10, 2011 (with Wang Qun).

"Bush China Policy a Successful Balancing Act," China Briefing, International Affairs Forum, August 5, 2008. (PDF)

“Barbarians Lobbying at the Gate,” Financial Times, September 28, 2005, p. 9 (reprinted YaleGlobal Online, October 5, 2005). (PDF

“What International Track?” IU East Asian Studies Center Newsletter, April 2004. (PDF)

“Hu Won't Change China,” Asian Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2002, p. A11. (PDF)

Government Testimony (政府证词)

Testimony before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on "Confronting Threats From China: Assessing Controls on Technology and Investment, and Measures to Combat Opioid Trafficking". June 4, 2019 (PDF)

Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, on "Risks, Rewards, and Results: U.S. Companies in China and Chinese Companies in the United States," Washington, DC. February 28, 2019. (PDF

Testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Monetary Policy and Trade, on "Evaluating CFIUS: Challenges Posed by a Changing Global Economy," Washington, DC. January 9, 2018. (PDF)

Testimony before the Section 301 Committee Office, United States Trade Representative, on "Section 301 Investigation: China's Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation." Washington, DC. October 10, 2017. (PDF)

Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Asia and Pacific, on "Reviewing President Xi's State Visit." Washington, DC. October 7, 2015. (PDF)

Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, on "Foreign Investment Climate in China: Present Challenges and Potential for Reform," Washington, DC. January 28, 2015, (PDF

Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, for hearing, "The Extent of Government's Control of China's Economy, and Implications for the United States," Dirken Senate Office Building, Washington, DC, May 24, 2007. (PDF)

Books (书籍)

"Philanthropy in China: Institutional and Social Factors,” Special Issue for Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations, Vol. 30, No. 4 (August 2019). (Articles by Bies & Kennedy, Huang, Guo & Lai, Sidel, Deng, Zhu et al, and Shieh)

Global Governance and China: The Dragon's Learning Curve (Routledge, 2017)

From Rule Takers to Rule Makers: The Growing Role of Chinese in Global Governance (2012)

Beyond the Middle Kingdom: Comparative Perspectives on China's Capitalist Transformation (Stanford University Press, 2011)

The Business of Lobbying in China (Harvard University Press, 2005, 2008)

China Cross Talk: The American Debate Over China Policy Since Normalization, A Reader (Rowman & Littlefield, 2003)

Articles and Reports (学术文章和报告)

(with Angela Bies) “The State and the State of the Art on Philanthropy in China,” Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations, Vol. 30, No. 4 (August 2019), pp. 619-633.

"In China’s Credit Ratings, Democracies Pay a Price," Foreign Policy, August 8, 2019 | By Scott Kennedy

“The United States, China, and Global Governance: A New Agenda for a New Era,” IU Research Center for Chinese Politics & Business and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute for World Economics & Politics, Bloomington, Indiana, April 2013 (with He Fan). (PDF

“Factor Analysis of Industry Association Lobbying and Influence” (行业协会的游说行为及其影响因素分析), Comparative Economic & Social Systems (经济社会体制比较), No. 162 (July 2012), pp. 147-156 (with Deng Guosheng). (PDF

“The Myth of the Beijing Consensus,” Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 19,No.65 (June 2010), pp. 461-477. (PDF)

“Big Business and Industry Association Lobbying in China: The Paradox of Contrasting Styles,” China Journal, No. 63 (January 2010), pp. 101-125 (with Deng Guosheng). (PDF)

"Comparing Formal and Informal Lobbying Practices in China: The Capital's Ambivalent Embrace of Capitalists," China Information, vol. 23, no. 2 (July 2009), pp. 195-222). (PDF)

"Standards, Stakeholders, and Innovation: China's Evolving Role in the Global Knowledge Economy," NBR Special Report, no. 15 (September 2008) (English PDF,Chinese PDF) © National Bureau of Asian Research (with Richard P. Suttmeier and Jun Su).

"China's Emerging Credit Rating Industry: The Official Foundations of Private Authority," The China Quarterly, no. 193 (March 2008), pp. 65-83. (PDF) © The China Quarterly.

"Transnational Political Alliances: An Exploration with Evidence from China," Business & Society, Vol. 46, No. 2 (June 2007), pp. 174-200. (PDF)

"The Political Economy of Standards Coalitions: Explaining China's Involvement in High-Tech Standards Wars," Asia Policy, no. 2 (July 2006), pp. 41-62. (PDF)

"China's Porous Protectionism: The Changing Political Economy of Trade Policy," Political Science Quarterly, vol. 120, no. 3 (Fall 2005), pp. 407-432. (PDF)

"Divining China's Future," World Policy Journal, vol. 21, no. 4 (Winter 2004/05), pp. 77-85. (PDF)

"The Price of Competition: Pricing Policies and the Struggle to Define China's Economic System," China Journal, no. 49 (January 2003), pp. 1-30. (PDF)

"The Stone Group: State Client or Market Pathbreaker?," The China Quarterly, no. 152 (December 1997), pp. 746-777. (PDF)

"Comrade's Dilemma: Corruption and Growth in Transition Economies," Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 44, no. 2 (March-April 1997), pp. 28-36. (PDF)

"Time to Shift Gears on China Policy," Journal of East Asian Affairs, vol. 10, no. 1 (Winter/Spring 1996), pp. 45-73 (with Michael O'Hanlon). (PDF)

Reports for Gavekal Dragnomics, China Policy Watch Series


"Wanted: More Creative Destruction," February 10, 2014. (PDF)

"Multinationals in China: Take The Pain, Wait For The Gain," November 8, 2013. (PDF)

"Industrial Consolidation: Trimming The Long Tail," August 6, 2013. (PDF)

“Government Restructuring: Reform Sails Against The Wind,” May 2, 2013. (PDF)

“Business Confidence: The Challenge of Great Expectations,” February 28, 2013. (PDF)

“Mergers & Acquisitions: Moving Up the Food Chain,” December 7, 2012. (PDF)

“World Trade Rules: Playing To The Whistle,” September 26, 2012. (PDF)

“Leadership Transition: The Chance for Change,” June 25, 2012. (PDF)

“Pink Capitalists in Bloom,” April 25, 2012. (PDF)

“Indigenous Innovation: Techno-Nationalist Retreat?” March 2, 2012. (PDF)

“Rare Earths: Rocky Road for China Inc(oherent),” January 12, 2012. (PDF)